Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks (Week 7)

Published on 19 Oct at 12:35 pm

Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.

Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.

Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice

Start’Em

Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)

Matthew Stafford is the QB15 in fantasy points per game with QB1 finishes in two of his last three games. He’s best viewed as a QB2 this week with his receiving weapons banged up. Stafford has been ballin’ this season, though. Among 41 qualifying passers, Stafford ranks sixth in yards per attempt, third in passing touchdowns and passing yards per game, and second in hero throw rate. He faces a Jacksonville pass defense that leads the NFL in interceptions and has allowed the 11th-lowest CPOE, but they have also given up the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied) and the 11th-highest success rate per dropback. Stafford should put up solid numbers this week, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to make it into QB1 territory.

C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)

C.J. Stroud has only one QB1 weekly finish this season. That’s when he demolished the Ravens’ broken pass defense before the bye as the QB1 for the week. Stroud hasn’t finished higher than QB15 in any other week. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 13th in yards per attempt and catchable target rate and 14th in highly accurate throw rate. He should be able to post QB2 numbers this week against a Seattle pass defense that has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the tenth-most passing touchdowns, and ranks 16th in CPOE.

Jordan Love (QB – GB)

Jordan Love is the QB13 in fantasy points per game with only one QB1 weekly finish this season (QB6). Love has been quite good on a per-dropback basis, but the problem is the Packers aren’t passing enough. He ranks 25th in dropbacks despite also sitting at tenth in passing yards per game, third in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and eighth in hero throw rate. Love should post strong numbers again this week and possibly flirt with QB1 production against a pass defense that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the ninth-highest success rate per dropback, and that sits at 18th in CPOE.

Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)

Caleb Williams is the QB8 in fantasy points per game, with three games as a top ten weekly option (QB9, QB1, QB10) and two games outside the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks in weekly scoring (QB20, QB24). Williams’ rushing score saved his fantasy day last week. Without it, he would have finished with 13.9 fantasy points for the week. Among 41 qualifying passers, Williams ranks 16th in yards per attempt, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, 37th in catchable target rate, and he has the third-highest off-target rate and the 14th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Williams’ fantasy production has been much better than his real-life quarterback play. Rushing production and some nice matchups have helped him this season. Lookie lookie, Williams has another soft matchup to exploit this week. He should post strong QB1 numbers this week. New Orleans has been clueless as a pass defense this season, giving up the eighth-most yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest CPOE, and the seventh-highest success rate per dropback.

Justin Fields (QB – NYJ)

There hasn’t been much in between for Justin Fields this season. He’s either been amazing for fantasy purposes or an abject disaster. Fields has two games against strong pass defenses with less than five fantasy points, but also this season, he has three games with at least 25.9 fantasy points. Fields has still offered plenty of production weekly, with his legs averaging 7.6 rushing attempts and 47 rushing yards with three scores on the ground. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and 25th in catchable target rate. With Garrett Wilson out this week, Fields will need to rely upon his legs to get the job done in fantasy, which is easily possible. Carolina ranks 15th in yards per attempt and 19th in success rate per dropback while giving up the tenth-most passing touchdowns and ranking dead last in pressure rate. Fields should enjoy some clean pockets this week, which hasn’t been the case this season as he’s faced the second-highest pressure rate.

Sit'Em

Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG)

Since Week 4, Dart has been the QB10 in fantasy points per game, averaging ten carries and 55.7 rushing yards per game. Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, fifth in catchable target rate, and 17th in CPOE. He’ll need all the production with his legs that he can muster this week against an elite Denver pass defense. Dart will be under duress any time he drops back to pass this week. Dart has the fourth-highest pressure rate faced this season. Denver ranks ninth in blitz rate and first in pressure rate. Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest success rate per dropback, and the second-fewest passing touchdowns. Dart is a QB2 this week.

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)

Trevor Lawrence is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 weeks this season under his belt (QB12, QB5). His Week 5 showing with his legs was an outlier. That is the only game this season where Lawrence has manufactured more than 12 rushing yards, so don’t expect his rushing equity to enter the equation most weeks. Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence ranks 18th in passing yards per game, 29th in yards per attempt, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. I don’t expect Lawrence to have a monster game in Week 7. He’s likely posting mid-range QB2 numbers this week. The Rams have held quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and CPOE and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)

Tua Tagovailoa is the QB24 in fantasy points per game with only one QB1 performance this season (QB9). Every other week, he has finished as the QB17 or lower in weekly scoring. Tagovailoa remains a game manager for Miami, ranking 35th in aDOT (6.7). Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 27th in yards per attempt, tenth in highly accurate throw rate, and 19th in catchable target rate. Tagovailoa likely turns in another low-end QB2 performance this week against a pass defense that ranks 16th in yards per attempt and success rate per dropback and has given up the seventh-most passing touchdowns and the 13th-highest CPOE.

Fantasy Football Deep Plays to Consider

Sam Darnold (QB – SEA)

Sam Darnold might be the QB18 in fantasy points per game, but he has three QB1 outings in his last four games (QB10, QB2, QB9). Darnold has quietly been amazing on a per-dropback basis this season. It has been awesome to see. Darnold is first in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and third in hero throw rate. Houston has fielded a stout pass defense, but Darnold has played so well that I think he still posts solid QB2 numbers this week. Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Bo Nix (QB – DEN)

There’s no other way to put this, but Bo Nix has had a weekly spot on the struggle bus this season as the QB19 in fantasy points per game. Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 27th in passer rating, 31st in highly accurate throw rate, 33rd in catchable target rate, and he has the eighth-highest off-target rate. Nix could have issues again this week against what has been a renewed Giants’ pass defense. Since Week 4, this team has put a hurting on opposing passers, allowing the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback. During this span, the Giants have also had the tenth-best pressure rate. Denver should lean on their ground game this week.

Daniel Jones (QB – IND)

Jones is the QB9 in fantasy points per game as he has had a renaissance as a passer this season. Yes, he his averaging 12.7 rushing yards per game with four rushing scores, but his passing stats have been even more impressive. Among 41 qualifying passers, Jones ranks fifth in yards per attempt, 11th in passing yards per game, third in highly accurate throw rate, and sixth in catchable target rate. Jones will have a tough road to walk this week against the Bolts’ pass defense. The Chargers have allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-fewest passing yards per game, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback. Indy should lean on its ground game this week.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistantwhich allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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