Sunday Overreactions: Canadiens will finish ahead of Leafs in standings

It’s been quite some time since both the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Montreal Canadiens had strong teams at the same time. The Leafs have been the better squad in the regular season over the last few years, but Montreal got the best of them with an epic comeback series win when the two met in the 2021 playoffs.

Montreal has grown by leaps and bounds since then, though. The Canadiens have been one of the most exciting teams to watch this season and have already won a couple of thrilling games. But do they have enough to surpass their archrivals this season? Let’s dive into that and other potential overreactions from this week.

Canadiens poised to finish with more points than Leafs

An early glance at the Atlantic standings reveals Montreal in an unfamiliar spot, tied atop the division with the Maple Leafs one point behind. There’s a lot of hockey to be played and Toronto has beaten the Canadiens this year, but there is reason to believe the gap between the two teams has narrowed considerably. Montreal looks like one of the fastest teams in the league, playing an up-tempo style that the opposition is having a tough time dealing with. Cole Caufield looks to be developing into a great goal scorer and Nick Suzuki is tremendous at both ends of the ice. The Canadiens had to scratch and claw to get into the postseason a year ago, though this group looks ready to take a forward and potentially overtake a team like the Maple Leafs.

First off, the Leafs have lost a superstar and 100-point player in Mitch Marner, making them less potent offensively and putting the forward depth between the two teams more on par. Toronto has added the likes of Nic Roy, Matias Maccelli and Dakota Joshua, who haven’t really clicked yet in any meaningful offensive way. It’s fair to question how Toronto will replace Marner’s offence.

Then there’s the blue line, where the Leafs have a solid group but it’s much older than Montreal’s, and the Canadiens have better puck movers. Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson and Mike Matheson will all be able to drive offence from the back end to help the forward group generate more scoring.

When it comes to the goaltending, this is the area I’d be most concerned about if I were the Maple Leafs. Joseph Woll has been away from the team and there’s no word on when he might return, leaving the bulk of the work to Anthony Stolarz, who has never played more than 34 games in a season. Expecting Stolarz to replicate the incredible numbers he posted last season is a big ask under the circumstances. Toronto is playing 13 non-playoff teams from 2024-25 in its first 15 games this year, with 10 of those games coming at home, and so far, they are off to a mediocre start. If the Maple Leafs don’t pick it up soon, it could be an opportunity for Montreal to take advantage of.

I don’t think the Canadiens are going to completely leave the Leafs in their dust or anything like that, but the two teams feel closer than they have in a while. Toronto had 108 points last year and Montreal had 91, so could I see a scenario where Montreal ups its total by nine or 10 points? Sure. And would it shock me if the Leafs regress by eight points or so? Absolutely not. Either way, I still think both teams make the playoffs and maybe we’ll even be treated to another first-round matchup between the two.

Matvei Michkov is headed for a sophomore slump

It’s been a very quiet start for Matvei Michkov. After dazzling with 26 goals and 63 points as a rookie, Michkov has just a single point this season and he’s only managed a total of seven shots on goal in five games. What’s more troubling? It seems Rick Tocchet isn’t leaning on Michkov too heavily just yet. The Philadelphia Flyers forward has played less than 15 minutes in four of his five games so far this year after averaging almost 17 minutes a night a year ago. He also played a season low 12:07 on Saturday night. If Michkov is getting less playing time under Tocchet than John Tortorella, you can understand why Flyers fans may be concerned about a sophomore slump.

I wouldn’t be overly concerned about Michkov just yet. Let’s not discount the adjustment it takes to acclimate yourself to a new head coach and playing style, especially for a young player like Michkov. He’s still on the top line and I’d expect his minutes to increase as the season goes on and he earns more of Tocchet’s trust. If he managed 63 points under Tortorella, there’s surely a path to eventually bettering that under a coach that won’t have the offensive shackles on so tightly.

That isn’t to say Tocchet will have the Flyers playing pond hockey out there; far from it. But his Vancouver Canucks finished sixth overall in goals just two years ago, so I think Tocchet will allow Philly to be a little more creative offensively than Tortorella did. That’s not to say Michkov will finish near the top of the league in scoring or anything, but I don’t see his numbers plummeting drastically in year two either.

Jack Eichel making early MVP case

Don’t look now, but Jack Eichel is leading the league in scoring. Eichel has at least two points in every game but one and already has five goals. He’s not going to score 80 times but it seems very realistic that Eichel could easily surpass his career high of 36 playing with Marner on a regular basis. There’s a long way to go in the season but if you were handing out the Hart Trophy today, it would probably go to Eichel.

I don’t see any signs of Eichel slowing down. He had 94 points in 77 games a year ago, and as long as he’s healthy, Eichel seems destined to cross the century mark with ease in 2025-26. There are also a couple of things working in Eichel’s favour right now, like a healthy Mark Stone who has 11 assists and obviously Marner, who also has tremendous vision and an incredible skillset. Eichel has never skated with a playmaker as talented as Marner, so a career high in points could very well be in order. Marner is also very good defensively, meaning he can help take some of the pressure off Eichel in that department so he can focus a little more on offence.

There will obviously be others that are going to be in the Hart conversation, like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Kirill Kaprizov, to name a few, but it very much feels like Eichel is going to be in the mix all season long with the way things are going.

Matt Boldy will hit 50 goals

He hasn’t even scored 30 goals since the 2022-23 season, but this year feels different for Matt Boldy. The Minnesota Wild forward is off to the races with a goal in the first four games he played to go along with five assists. Boldy has the luxury of playing on a stacked top line with Kirill Kaprizov and Marco Rossi and that’s helping him find the scoresheet with regularity. The 24-year-old is starting to establish himself as an elite talent and it does seem like he has the ability to score 50 goals if all the stars align.

Boldy managed just 27 goals last season, but that was with Kaprizov missing half the 2024-25 campaign. If Kaprizov can stay healthy this year and the duo are paired up as wingers for the majority of the season, there’s no reason to believe Boldy can’t add another 20 goals or so to his total. Plus, Rossi is proving to be a real offensive threat as well, coming off a 60-point campaign himself. That trio could become one of the most formidable lines in all of hockey. Even if the Wild flip-flop Rossi and Joel Eriksson Ek at times as the top line centre, it still gives Boldy a solid pivot to play with.

There also seems to be an increased emphasis on Boldy shooting the puck more, as last season he set a career high in that department with 271 shots. This year, he is on pace to beat that mark, and there’s a good chance that playing next to Kaprizov will give him more quality looks. Kaprizov is going to attract the majority of the attention in the offensive zone, which should free up more time and space for Boldy. It would not shock me, as long as everyone stays healthy, if Boldy doubles his goal total from a year ago.

Cam Talbot has overtaken John Gibson as the Red Wings’ number one goalie

John Gibson finally gets a change of scenery and lands in Detroit, only to watch Cam Talbot start three of the first four games of the season. Talbot has been excellent thus far, going 3-0-0 with a .932 save percentage, as the Red Wings are making some early noise in the Atlantic. His starts have also come against tough competition, as Talbot has beaten the Maple Leafs twice as well as the Florida Panthers. Meanwhile, Gibson had a rough first game, allowing five goals on 13 shots. He bounced back Friday with a quality start against the Tampa Bay Lightning but the Wings are desperate for results and Talbot could easily get the majority of the starts going forward if he keeps this up.

Keep in mind, Talbot is 38 years old and he’s had hot starts in recent years but struggled to sustain them. Last season was a great example, as Talbot started with a .913 in October and a .919 in November, only to fade in December with a mark of .869. Then, from February onward, Talbot had a save percentage well below .900. At his age, he’ll have a tough time sustaining this level of play if he’s asked to take on a heavy workload. Talbot’s numbers are going to come back down to earth at some point.

Plus, Detroit gave up a pair of draft picks and Petr Mrazek to get Gibson, so they have a lot invested to make it work. They’re going to give him every chance to succeed because he has a higher ceiling than Talbot. If Gibson’s injury woes continue, that’s another matter altogether, but I’d expect Gibson to end up with more playing time than Talbot as long as he’s healthy. The Red Wings have been looking for stability in goal for years, and Gibson ultimately gives them the best chance to make that happen if he can find consistency with his game.

The Hurricanes will finally get over the hump this season

Only one undefeated team remains, and it’s the Carolina Hurricanes. The Canes have looked great over the first two weeks, outscoring their opponents 23-11 in five victories with goals from 13 different players. Seth Jarvis has looked to have found another gear, already finding the back of the net six times, which included an overtime winner Saturday night. Carolina also has the benefit of playing in the Metropolitan Division, which is arguably the weakest in the league. It already looks like the Hurricanes are well set up for another deep playoff run.

Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here. Carolina has only beaten New Jersey, Philadelphia, San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles, not exactly a gauntlet of teams to run through there. Plus, there are already questions in goal again, as Pyotr Kochetkov is injured and you can only rely on Frederik Andersen for so long. Andersen played three of the first four games and that pace isn’t a recipe for success for keeping him healthy. What matters most for the Canes in the post-season, as they’ve had a hard time getting past the Florida Panthers (who haven’t?) in the Conference Finals. They can’t prove they’re more prepared to battle Florida after a handful of wins over mediocre teams in October. The jury is still out on whether things will be different for Carolina this spring.