Tropical Storm Jerry is rushing across the central Atlantic Ocean on Thursday and is expected to finally strengthen into a hurricane on Friday.
Jerry, which formed Tuesday, is the 10th named storm of a late-blooming season that has produced three hurricanes in just over two weeks.
The storm had sustained winds of 65 mph as of Thursday morning and was about 350 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A tropical storm watch is in effect for most of the Leeward Islands, where Jerry will skim past later Thursday into Friday.
It was moving quickly to the west-northwest at 20 mph. The storm’s speed and hostile environmental conditions around it were preventing it from strengthening significantly, but it is still likely to slow down and become a hurricane as it tracks north of the northern Leeward islands later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Jerry will bring some wind and rain to the islands through Friday, but the storm’s strongest winds are roaring on its eastern side and will largely avoid land. Up to 4 inches of rain could drench the Leeward Islands and parts of the US and British Virgin Islands through Friday with 1 to 2 inches of rain reaching eastern Puerto Rico.
The storm won’t threaten the mainland United States because a cold front will sweep off the East Coast and help deflect it out to sea.
East Coast cold fronts like these become more common in October, so more worrisome for the US are late-season storms that often form in the Gulf and Caribbean. Since these regions are closer to land, any storms that form have a greater chance to cause dangerous impacts.
An area monitored for a low chance of development in the Gulf this week didn’t pan out, but of greater interest is a storm-spawning weather pattern that might develop by mid-October.
A broad area of stormy weather is likely to form around that time and rotate around the western Caribbean region, according to an outlook issued last week by Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and research scientist at Colorado State University.
The favored areas of tropical storm formation in October are the Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic. – CNN Weather
Known as the Central American Gyre, this area of stormy weather and spin is notorious for generating late-season storms. It’s too early to know if this weather pattern will produce a storm this October, but forecasters will be monitoring the region deeper into the month.
Boom or bust to finish the season?
Four named storms typically form in October and November, but some hurricane seasons can have a stronger finish while others mostly shut off.
The last few years illustrate this year-to-year ebb and flow. Seven storms formed during October and November last season, but just two formed during the same time in 2023.
While there are usually fewer storms at the tail end of the season, recent years show how destructive they can still be.
Hurricane Michael in 2018 was the latest in the season a Category 5 has made landfall in the US after it roared into the Florida Panhandle on October 10. Two years earlier, Hurricane Matthew caused October destruction from the Caribbean to the Carolinas. And maybe most notorious of all: Hurricane Sandy morphed into a hybrid superstorm in late-October 2012 and walloped the East Coast.
Last year’s late-season run began in late-September when Hurricane Helene ravaged the Southeast with its catastrophic flooding and winds. It was punctuated by Hurricane Milton’s exceptional burst to Category 5 strength before weakening as it struck the Florida Peninsula in early October.
A similar ramp up of activity in late-September has happened this year after the Atlantic shed the hostile-for-hurricane conditions it had earlier in the month.
Tracks of the 2025 Atlantic named storms through October 6. No hurricanes have a made US landfall so far. – CNN Weather
After Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 monster in mid-August, the Atlantic mostly went to sleep. Then came a barrage of three hurricanes — Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda — forming in a two-week-stretch to end September, breaking an unusual quiet spell.
Hurricanes Gabrielle and Humberto also rapidly intensified like Erin. Gabrielle exploded into a strong Category 4, while Humberto became the season’s second Category 5.
Still, no hurricanes have made a US landfall this season. If that luck continues through the end of November, it would be first hurricane landfall-free season in a decade.
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com
Source link
