Just ahead of the 2025 MLS regular season kicking off eight months ago, predictions from so-called experts poured in, for better or worse – and largely worse.
When it comes to MLS, more than just about any top-flight soccer league in the world, attempting to peer into a crystal ball and forecast the future with any clarity is a futile endeavor. It makes for hilariously off-the-mark prognostications and fuels the favored “nobody believes in us” arguments within locker rooms.
This so-called expert had it wrong, too, but I wasn’t alone. I don’t recall seeing a single prediction for the Philadelphia Union, Vancouver Whitecaps or San Diego FC to top their respective conferences. Yet Philly won the Supporters’ Shield with a game to spare and one of Vancouver or San Diego will finish first in the West.
That’s the beauty of MLS, and the regular season has one more salvo. Saturday is Decision Day, the final day of the regular season. While Philly enjoyed its Shield celebration already, there is plenty left to play for, with all Eastern Conference matchups kicking at 6 p.m. ET and all Western Conference showdowns going at 9 p.m. ET (the lone interconference game, NYCFC vs. Seattle, will go at 6).
Between playoff scenarios, seeding, home-field advantage and Lionel Messi chasing history (again), this is what’s at stake to close out the 2025 campaign and set the table for the postseason.
FC Dallas is eyeing an MLS playoff berth (Tim Heitman / Imagn Images)
Remaining unclaimed playoff spots
The final two playoff spots in the Western Conference are up for grabs, with FC Dallas, Real Salt Lake, the Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes all stumbling towards the finish line.
Dallas (41 points) and Real Salt Lake (40 points) are holding the final spots, with Colorado (40 points) and San Jose (38 points) below the playoff line chasing. The race hasn’t quite been an Olympic sprint. Any one of these four teams to get a win (or even draw) this weekend should feel confident their competition will not.
Colorado has one win in its last six matches; San Jose has one win in its last five; RSL has two wins in its last five.
Dallas is the only team in good form of late, but it will be without star forward Petar Musa as well as Logan Farrington – who would play as a No. 9 without Musa – both due to suspension. Farrington picked up a controversial red card in FCD’s last match, and the club lost its appeal to overturn the decision.
Dallas plays at the first-place Vancouver Whitecaps, and Colorado hosts in-form LAFC – difficult matches for two teams fighting for their playoff lives. San Jose (hosting Austin FC) and RSL (at St. Louis) should have an easier time, at least on paper. But it’s tough to trust any of these teams to pick up results.
For whichever ones do and claim the eighth and ninth seeds out West, they’ll play a wildcard match against each other before getting the right to likely face Thomas Müller and the Whitecaps (though San Diego remains mathematically alive for the top seed) .
It’ll be a heavy mismatch, but record-setting Inter Miami lost in that round last year, so anything is possible, right?
Inter Miami stars Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez are seeking a first MLS Cup title (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
Messi closing in on Golden Boot, MVP
Lionel Messi is the overwhelming favorite to win his second MLS MVP award. He would become the first player in league history to win the honor in back-to-back seasons and only the second player to win twice at all (following Preki, who did it in 1997 and 2003).
Messi leads MLS in goal contributions with 44. His 26 goals are first in MLS and his 18 assists are tied for first with San Diego’s Anders Dreyer.
On the Golden Boot front, Messi is being chased by LAFC winger Denis Bouanga (24 goals) and Nashville SC forward Sam Surridge (23 goals).
In historical context, Messi’s 44 goal contributions are the second-most in a single season in league history, trailing only Carlos Vela’s thermonuclear 2019 season, where he had 49 (34 goals and 15 assists). That is widely regarded as the best individual season in MLS history.
If Messi is to seal the honors, it’ll come in Nashville.
Seeding for contenders
The jockeying for seeding is much more consequential than the wild card race out West (or which team can avoid the wild card match in the East).
A number of inner-circle contenders in both conferences have not locked in seeding just yet. That excludes Philadelphia, which boasts the league’s top mark and has home-field advantage as long as it’s alive.
Miami is currently behind FC Cincinnati for second in the East. If Cincy wins, it could host a potential playoff game against Miami down the line, and Messi & Co. have been much better at home (2.12 PPG) than on the road (1.63 PPG).
Below them, Charlotte FC, NYCFC and Nashville are pushing for fourth place (and home-field advantage in the best-of-three Round One).
Out West, the Whitecaps just need a point to secure the top spot. San Diego could overtake with a win and Vancouver loss, but the expansion side could also drop as low as fourth, with Minnesota and LAFC able to rise as high as second.
For all of these bona fide MLS Cup contenders, the seeding is crucial.
Veteran goalkeeper Brad Guzan is retiring at the end of the MLS season (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
Final hurrahs
Saturday will be a sendoff for Atlanta United goalkeeper Brad Guzan, who announced this week that he will retire this offseason. It’s been a disaster of a year for the club, which has long been eliminated from playoff contention, so this is it for Guzan.
Guzan, 41, lost his starting spot over the summer, but one would expect to see the club legend get sent off with one more start. He has been with Atlanta since its inaugural 2017 season and was a pillar of the trophy-winning seasons early on.
We already know a few more big names who will be retiring after the MLS season, but they still have the playoffs and one more run at a trophy to look forward to. MLS legend Darlington Nagbe is retiring this winter as are Miami’s Spanish greats Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets.
Nagbe has won four MLS Cups, while Alba and Busquets are looking to go out with an MLS title to cap their trophy-laden careers.
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